BUSINESS CYCLES FACT FALLACY AND FANTASY 1st Edition by Sumru G Altug ISBN 9812832769 9789812832764

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ISBN 10: 9812832769 
ISBN 13: 9789812832764
Author: Sumru G Altug

This book provides an overview of the modern theory and empirics of business cycles. Written by one of the pioneering authors in this field, it examines the notion of a business cycle and discusses alternative approaches to modeling. Arguably, one of the most important debates in this literature has been the issue of “matching” a business cycle to the data. In their original contribution, Kydland and Prescott (1982) proposed the method of calibration as a way of examining the implications of a business cycle model; yet, even at its inception, this approach came under criticism from a variety of sources. This monograph will examine some of these criticisms and discuss alternative approaches that have been put forward. More generally, it will discuss what lies ahead for modern business cycle theory.

BUSINESS CYCLES FACT FALLACY AND FANTASY 1st Table of contents:

Part 1: Understanding Business Cycles

1. What is a Business Cycle?

   • Definition and Historical Perspectives
   • The Phases of Business Cycles
   • Causes of Economic Fluctuations

2. Measuring the Business Cycle

   • Key Economic Indicators
   • Methods of Measuring Economic Activity
   • Challenges in Tracking Business Cycles

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Part 2: Theories of Business Cycles

3. Classical and Neoclassical Views

   • The Role of Supply and Demand
   • The Impact of Technological Change
   • The Influence of Government and Policy

4. Keynesian Perspectives

   • The Role of Aggregate Demand
   • Government Intervention and Fiscal Policy
   • The Multiplier Effect and Recessionary Pressures

5. Monetarism and the Role of Money

   • The Monetarist Critique of Keynesian Economics
   • The Quantity Theory of Money
   • Controlling Inflation through Monetary Policy

6. The Real Business Cycle Theory

   • Shocks and Technological Change
   • Labor Markets and Production
   • The Role of Productivity in Economic Fluctuations

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Part 3: Fallacies in Understanding Business Cycles

7. Myths about Business Cycles

   • Misunderstanding the Role of Government
   • The Myth of the “Natural” Business Cycle
   • Fallacies in Forecasting Economic Trends

8. The Fallacy of “Boom and Bust” Markets

   • Distinguishing Between Cycles and Long-Term Growth
   • Financial Markets and Speculation
   • How Speculative Bubbles Distort Perceptions of Business Cycles

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Part 4: Fantasy and Economic Policy

9. Economic Policy and the Myth of Control

   • Can Policymakers Control the Business Cycle?
   • The Limits of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
   • Historical Lessons from Failed Policy Attempts

10. The Fantasy of Predicting Business Cycles

• The Problem of Forecasting Economic Cycles
• The Limitations of Econometric Models
• The Role of Uncertainty and Randomness

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Part 5: Implications for Business and Government

11. Adapting Business Strategies to the Cycle

• Strategic Planning in the Face of Economic Uncertainty
• Risk Management During Different Phases of the Cycle
• Using Business Cycle Knowledge for Competitive Advantage

12. The Role of Government in Managing Cycles

• Economic Stabilization and Policy Tools
• Debates on Government Intervention in the Economy
• The Politics of Business Cycle Management

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